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The Indian Stock Market: Analysis of last month, & Planning for next….

The Indian Stock Market: Analysis of last month, & Planning for next….
My article as published in “Vyaapaar Samachar”-The Business Newspaper, few days back.
Analysis for Last Month; and Planning for Next
Dated 21st Oct 2018
It is said that; the festival of Vijaya Dashmi, signifies ultimate victory of good over evil, or say green over red and bull over bear? Will we see this victory in near term? Well, even if we do, there’s big damage caused till date. Yes, victory always comes at a cost, and the cost can well be in terms of time, patience as well as faith. Every good story/stock will turn positive one day, but a player has to ask him/herself: Do I have that kind of time, risk appetite and holding capacity? And then play accordingly.
In my article dated 21st Sept 2018, I had mentioned that if you are an investor and are in profits currently, it is wise to book it out for once. If you are an investor and looking for fresh entry, let me be blunt to say that there isn’t any such entry visible as of now. If you are a trader; then instead of seeking and searching for a bottom, start making money on short side. And today, a month later, we can see these things play out, well as planned. Now let’s plan for coming month.
Right now the market is making efforts to stay above 10300. The retracement on upside had faced resistance from levels of around 10700. Market will make all efforts to protect the recent lows of around 10150/10000. If this stays sustained; we may see a bounce on the upside. Instead of assuming it a bottom; shorter term players must treat that as a bounce and play accordingly. Never get trapped assuming it as a support meant to last forever. Market may not show Brexit and Rexit type of recovery this time, because there are many headwinds and are macro in nature, both local and global. Longer term players can build portfolio in parts. If recent lows fail to sustain it-self, then we shall move towards 9100 giving more shorting opportunities. There could be many levels between that provide support to prices, and one must book out and stay aside at those levels, to see what happens next. Longer term players can keep adding in parts at those intermediate support levels below 10K.
What is interesting is that; currently many scrips are quoting at the price level of 2016 and even 2014, when Nifty was at 7500 approx. Bajaj Auto, Eicher, ACC, AshokLey, Asian paints….What this indicates is that; the extent of damage is much deeper than what is shown by the main index. These kind of sharp corrections in individual names signal that one can watch quality names from those, and build positions in those slowly, and as per one’s own risk appetite.
But just because you are in for longer term doesn’t mean you will ignore risk. Even heaven helps only those, who help themselves. You must also remember that there are scrips like BoB and DLF that are also quoting at levels same as those in 2008/9 when Nifty was at 4500. Now tell me how wise is that? Risk control and capital preservation must apply to one and all. Period.
At this juncture, I recall that old song from the movie Gumrah: Woh afsana, jise anjaam tak, lana nah ho mumkin….usse ek khoobsurat modd dekar….choddna achcha…..Chalo ek bar fir se….
Any relationship that turns sour and goes to an extent of turning poisonous, should be steered clear from….whether it is your Share….or Sherni
What say? Aye…..Kya bolti tu????

DIWALI 2018 — Chart Study From Longer Term Perspective.

DIWALI 2018 — Chart Study From Longer Term Perspective.
As published in Vyaapaar Samachar and vyaapaarsamachar.com in Gujarati
Namaste…Hello….and Welcome to D-Street Winners Blog!
If you are from the Stock Market Community, you ought to be talking stocks, while the rest of the universe talks shopping/family/festivities/celebrations. While on rest of the days you work in western formals, during Diwali you are permitted to doll-up in ethnic Indian wear, and work in D-street….So that’s the difference you see 🙂 Without this, you are not really considered happening ….Whoopssss 😉 🙂
So sticking to the norms of looking for stock ideas on Diwali, let me complete the formality from my side. Why do I say formality? Because I do not necessarily believe in this concept. Why don’t I believe in this? Well there’s a reason. If you read about “Time Cycle Study”, you will learn about the concept of “Synchronicity”. It says that, two cycles are said to be synchronous if they bottom out together. Now reading time lines on Nifty, one sees that markets do not necessarily bottom out on every October or November….unless if we see something like Demonetization just during that time, and if that creates a near term bottom in that time frame. So Diwali time isn’t always in sync with creation of bottoms. And long term bets must be taken when longer term patterns are formed. When longer term support levels are seen being formed. And not when it is Diwali or because everybody does it. You don’t trade long because it is Monday. You don’t trade short, because it is Friday. You don’t invest just because it is Diwali. Simple!
Anyways, let’s see how things look like, if one wants to take the bets as of now. I am not here to give buy calls or even buy/sell levels. I am only here to share how I read charts on higher time frames as of now.
In my previous article dated 21st Oct, I had mentioned that markets will attempt to respect levels of 10000, provided flow of bad news get ebbed. I had mentioned that the fall is driven by bad macros and those need to turn, for recovery. Else, if we break 10000, then we are headed much lower. This curb on bad news was seen, as crude stopped rising and rupee stopped falling. Markets respected 10000 and we saw a solid rise. I had mentioned that any pullback should be treated as pullback only and not mistaken as a bottom meant to last forever. Now….15 days later, we stand at 10530, and the above logic stands valid. We should be fine in the year ahead, if 10000 holds. We may consolidate around it, and that should be healthy. Best of rallies occur from strongly built base. So be it
The stock charts that look good to me as of now, for coming times are mentioned below. These should in no way be treated as Investment recommendations. One must know and control one’s risk appetite and consult personal financial consultant, before any commitments. These stocks may continue to look good, till the broad fabric doesn’t deteriorate. In case of 10000 gets taken down decisively, or if the Political Scene takes stability for a toss, or if crude crosses 100, nothing may remain valid in medium term horizon of an year or less. Extreme long term, is another matter.
Wishing you all a Happy Diwali and a Profitable Samvat 2075 — From www.dstreetwinners.com. (Twitter @ Dstreetwinners)
The names on my study that look good currently are as mentioned below:
Prices here are as of 6th Nov 2018 EOD
AUROPHARMA @ 785
HAVELLS @ 645
HINDUNILVR @ 1630
SUNPHARMA @ 580
RELIANCE @ 1100
JETAIRWAYS @ 255
BAJFINANCE @ 2340
ICICIBANK @ 353

Some Market Observations as on 14th Apr 2019

Some Market Observations as on 14th Apr 2019
Bank Nifty — It is important for it to cross above 30400 to continue the current leg of uptrend; and all the more important to sustain 29750 on lower side. If not; then it could lead to deeper cuts. Chart looks a little weaker compared to chart of Nifty. Levels of 11600 and 11700 could probably be crucial to watch for the main index. Levels are of futures charts.
Stocks that could probably exude strength include names like :
ULTRACEMCO @ 4186 and
LICHSGFIN provided-above CMP @ 541 and
MARUTI @ 7374 — after some consolidation .
Some weakness could be probably visible in names like :
LT @ 1369 and
TITAN @ 1105.
All levels are current prices of futures segment.

None of the above are trading calls, none of the levels are entries or exits either. All of it, is chart study & observations ONLY.

Discipline for D-street winners….an article by Dstreetwinners

Discipline for D-street winners….an article by Dstreetwinners

I recently wrote a guest post for a Trader/Colleague, for his website (www.profiletraders.in). The topic was “Trading Discipline”. Sharing herewith, the same article. Hoping the readers enjoy the same. Let me know your comments on the write-up, below the article.

Trading Discipline

When one speaks on topics like discipline, it can often appear like a moral science class. When one writes on this topic like what I am doing now, it can again appear an easy topic to write on. Well; fact of the matter is, it could be easy to speak and write on these subjects for many, but this is one of the most difficult aspects of trading. And lack of discipline is also the major reason behind the pathetic performance of most traders. So what makes discipline, such a crucial yet difficult deal? Why can’t traders often stick to a few rules which can suffice to bring affluence and financial freedom? Let me dig deep enough and see what comes out….

Many years back as a school student; I used to be quite a disciplined person. Always regular in attendance, nails always trimmed, hair always tied up neatly and homework always completed. I was proud of being a disciplined student whom teachers rewarded and classmates looked upon. I was confident that I had; what it takes to be successful, in my endeavours ahead. The chosen line could have been anything…be it from science or any form of arts. Then many years later, I entered D-street, and I started aspiring to become a successful trader.

Har picture dekh ke socha; mein bhi actor ban jaaun…

Kismat ne ghoomaya…D-street mein…pahonchaya…

Hun yaaron ka mein yaar…de dhanadhan….

John Jani Janardhan…

Well, if you have read my book…”How to make money in intraday trading”, then you might be used to such lines in between J J….

Coming back to the point, I entered D-street and then I learnt the bigger meaning of Discipline. I learnt how narrow, my meaning of discipline had been till now.

D-street is an A-graded quality of mirror. It introduces you…to yourself…like no one else can. It shows you exactly what you are, and what you are not. And here I am, to share with you, some of my learnings, as mentioned below:

1. Discipline is not just about behaviour, punctuality and grooming; it is about mind management in a big way. It is about how you act and react, to events around you. It is about how much you can give up what you want today/now; for what you eventually want in life. It is thus about delaying short term gratifications for longer term goals.

2. Discipline is what separates winners and losers; be in in D-street or be it in life. I know so many around me, who were star performers as students but hardly made a mark after stepping out in real world. Our schools; unfortunately do not prepare us enough for the chapter called “life on streets”. And again unfortunately; most traders finish their chapter in D-street; without even knowing that, the issue behind their failure was not in their system, but it was in the discipline that exuded as traders. Seek within, before you seek elsewhere. All answers shall be found there.

3. I often read on social media…things like….person ”X” is the reason is I lost money…and person “Y” should be banned from talking or teaching markets. Well. this too is a matter of discipline. The first condition to succeed is that; you need to own your failures, before you can own success. If you depended on person “X” or “Y” for your gains without doing your homework; you ought to lose. No one can save you. This ownership of failure is a matter of trading discipline.

4. No one is forcing anyone to follow anyone’s advice. Our choices are our responsibilities. Riches; larger than life….never comes easy or free. In fact; nothing worth having…can come free. Even love of family is to be earned, through good karma. There are no free lunches anywhere. Knowing these realities; is trading maturity. And immature people have no business being in D-street.

5. I also hear people say; the stock moved against me only to throw me out and then proceed in my direction without taking me along…Well, you must understand that a successful trade may need multiple entries. And while taking those, your hand will not shiver; if you had exited with limited loss in initial failed attempt…If you are afraid to re-enter, it is probably because you took a big hit initially. This could be due to huge position size, or ignoring of SL. Both these issues of risk management and position sizing…are matters of trading discipline. In fact; these can make or break a trader forever.

6. Permitting your hope to fly higher than your logic, even when your trade is going against you…… or permitting your fear to overtake your trading rules, is again a matter of discipline. And trust me; D-street doesn’t forgive any of these. You straight away end up paying from your pocket. Hope in a failing trade and chasing in a run-away move, are both behavioural traits of a trader who lacks discipline.

7. Another matter of discipline for traders would include these two mistakes:

o 1) Premature exits that leave lot of money on the table for the next guy, and

o 2) The tendency of giving back earned income by overstaying your welcome. Both these behavioural traits are babies of indiscipline. Yes exit management, is a matter of disciplined trading, once your exit rules are well defined.

8. Respecting fellow trader is also a matter of professional discipline. Bad-mouthing people, no matter the reason, will not take anyone ahead. Staying away from non-sense which spoils your spiritual energy….is also discipline. And this is a major matter.

I may sound blunt….but trust me…D-street is going to be more blunt with you…so better get used to this. As I told you…D-street is the best quality mirror available around.

Unless a trader overcomes all these and many more similar tendencies; making money on consistent basis is going to be difficult. Earning one day, and giving up the next day, will only keep traders busy; without actually brining in any major change in level of financial freedom. Trading is one line, wherein you can remain busy whole life, and try to make others believe that you are a great trader, without actually being anything but that.

If you happen to see any of these traits in yourself; then it could be the time to take charge of matters pertaining to trading discipline.

Soch kar…samaj kar….trade kar….After all, its’ your life, make it large. You didn’t come here to be average, did you ??

Diwali Stocks Review

Diwali Stocks Review
Here is a Review of Diwali Stocks mentioned in article posted on last Diwali. Most performed satisfactorily. Except pharma names. About Jetairways. No one ever knows outcomes for sure. TATAs were expected to take it over. But… TATAs said tata to it. Can’t help. All that one must do is…keep booking…it made 42 percent returns in few mths…b4 it fell. There was enough time for booking the gains. Shdn’t let that kind of gains turn negative.

Any Big moves in the week ahead ? …But Where?

Any Big moves in the week ahead ? …But Where?

Hello everyone. So this weekend, in place of a YouTube video, I am writing this blog, wherein we will first discuss what we had spoken about last week, and then try to understand, what moves are probable in upcoming week.
The market took out the mentioned resistance of around 10650 with ease, converting that level into support during subsequent pullbacks. And we marched ahead towards the next level of around 10880, ending the week around 10760 finally. The strong trend, thus sustained well.
The stock of JSWSTEEL that was appearing weak, did go below the threshold of 192, but found no follow through & then made 2 attempts to rise strongly, giving nice intraday moves, yet failing in less than an hour and back to lower levels before end of day. All in all, it remained volatile & ended the week at almost same level as prior weeks’ closing. Thus a contracting week.
Moving ahead, it still remains at crucial threshold level, and the range is 191 to 196. Depending on context, I am expecting expansion in upcoming week as well in either directions. Markets these days, are notorious for setting up on one side and moving on the other. So much agility would be required to actually trade these names, and may even require switching directions at times.
Same is the case with Bajfinance, which too has contracted nicely through the week. Expecting an expansion there as well. The amazing thing about this name is that, it has made an attempt to stay at higher levels despite the astronomical rise of recent months. Such behavioral patterns instill confidence about further rises, provided the context keeps supporting. If not, the same names would be highly vulnerable for corrections as well, merely out of profit bookings. What more? Despite corrections of a few percentages, the trends would still remain intact. Support visible at 3150 & 3030. Both above names are at critical juncture and I would be watching them closely.
Nifty has been facing resistance around 10850, and another failure to cross that would increase chances of correction towards 10650/600. Bank Nifty remains weaker, and trade-able on both sides. In case of a fall, strong support comes in around 21650 & resistance around 23100.
Reliance remains a strong name and may keep holding the fort and may keep finding support even if it comes down lower 1860/50.
Tata steel is another decent looking bullish chart with clearer space for rise, if the context remains favorable
Please note, this study of charts is in no way meant to give buy/sell calls in any names and for anybody. There are no entry/exits being given, or trade designing being done here.